Everybody, calm down

The most depressing message from this election is not that Trump might win. He won’t. What’s truly frightening is that very few Republicans are peeling away from their 2012 voting patterns. The most abhorrent political figure to rise in from our political system, perhaps ever, will inspire a decline in internal Republican support of only about 3-4 percentage points. That tells a terrible story about the weakness of conscience in the face of group pressure. It is a reminder that “it can’t happen here” is a myth.

The fog over the Congressional races

How many traditional Republican voters will split their votes between a Trump alternative and the Republicans farther down the ballot? How many of them will just stay home? It looks like we are seeing an unprecedented surge in turnout among Democratic constituencies. Are we going to get an outcome more like ’06 and ’08? Will this surge be large enough to threaten Republicans who hold strong leads in the polls, like McCain and Rubio?

Josh Barro leaves the GOP

Today Josh Barro posted an explanation of decision to leave the Republican Party. For those you who followed GOPLifer, a lot of what he has to say will sound familiar. His childhood background with the party, his acceptance that Trump is a sort of proto-Fascist, and his disgust with the “sane” Republicans who have sold their souls for power are themes that ring true to many new ex-Republicans.

We could have a parliament

In the coming Congress, a surviving remnant of relatively rational Republicans like Mia Love, John Katko and Barbara Comstock will be handed remarkable power. They will have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to crack open our two-party monolith by forming a parliamentary coalition with centrist Democrats. Congressmen like John Katko could potentially hand the Speaker’s gavel to a Democrat, opening the door to a new era of multi-party, or rather “sub-party” politics in America.