The states that voted most heavily for Trump in 2016 avoided the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak. The virus swept through major metropolitan areas, in particular in the North-East where the highest density of people lives in the country. Even without a statistical analysis, you can see that a map of the number of coronavirus cases matches to a map of population density.
This is to be expected and is mostly in line with the incidence seen in other countries – in Italy it was the densely populated North that was most heavily hit. In England, the South-East, including London, bore the early brunt. Thus the “Red Counties” dodged the first wave for the most part.
The latest analysis of growth rates should put this assumption to the sword, however. The correlation between how heavily a state voted for Trump in 2016, and how fast the case rate is growing has shown a large rise over the last six weeks or so. Growth in cases is a measure of how well a disease is being controlled, and “Trump Country” is not controlling this virus well. The correlation between voting for Trump and growth is becoming clearer and clearer in the statistics, even if it isn’t being acknowledged on the ground.
The trend line (dotted) shows that the increase in correlation is 0.4% per day. That means that the current growth in correlation is over 10% per month. At current rates, the correlation will exceed 50% in September or October – not a good time for the impact on “Trump Country” on Trump’s chances in the 2020 election.
It isn’t just confirmed positive test rates that are growing, the trend can be seen in the growth in death rates as well.
With death rates, the growth is even faster, growing at 0.8% per day, or over 20% per month. This level of growth cannot continue indefinitely, as it would exceed 100% well before the election, however if the numbers are anything above 50% in October 2020 the consequences for Trump would be dire – people notice when a lot of people in their local communities are dying of a disease.